Did the Black vote win it for Cameron?

This question is not as absurd as you might think. Of course, given that the Labour Party have historically received up to 80% of the BME vote, if Labour’s Ed Miliband had won the Election, then many would have suggested that the BME vote was that crucial factor. But the Conservatives: could you make that claim?

Well, the new data released yesterday by British Future actually makes a strong argument that without the BME vote, David Cameron’s Conservatives would not be enjoying a majority Government. That fact is difficult to dispute.

So what happened?

Prior to this election the Conservatives rarely got above 15% of the BME vote. The Party funder and pollster Lord Ashcroft had argued for many years that his party could not win an election if the party remained with 15% of the BME vote. Further alarm bells rang when he and others witnessed that the Republicans were defeated again by Barak Obama precisely because they couldn’t make hardly any inroads into the African- American and Latino vote.

If a similar thing occurred here with the BME vote it was argued that the PM could kiss goodbye to Number 10. One other point Ashcroft drew upon was the fact that within the BME communities there were some that were seen natural allies, if they could make a strong enough case. . So began an unprecedented BME charm offensive particularly towards the Hindu and Sikh communities.

Having seen just how well it played out when Cameron attended Hindu Temples or Sikh Gudwaras, his election campaign made a big play for Britain’s African communities. Therefore with some two weeks to go before the Election Cameron attended what was undoubtedly the biggest audience he would address in all of the Election campaign, he attend the bi-annual Redeemed Christian Church of God event, with a congregation that numbered more than 40,000 parishioners.

Finally to add to his BME momentum the Conservatives paid for costly ads and video messages through The Voice newspaper and other BME press.

Collectively the data now shows it worked. Whilst it’s true that Labour still has the majority BME vote, but their lion’s share has been dramatically cut down to size, falling from the heady heights of 80-85% down to 52%. The Conservatives, in contract have risen from paltry 15% double to more that 30%.

Significantly, it is this shift that can easily be translated into at least a dozen political seats where Labour would have hoped that the BME vote would help win back, including: Croydon Central, Battersea, Hendon, Harrow, Nuneaton, Milton Keynes South, Bedford, Enfield, Reading, Rugby and Harlow.

The Tory BME focus, which witnessed an unprecedented rise, ensured they held on to these seats, in some cases with just few hundred votes here and there. Those critical seats make up the Conservative majority to run the UK without any other parties support.

Many might argue that this was a political shift waiting to happen: First because it has been felt for some time that the Labour Party had taken its eye of the BME ball, and secondly that the Conservatives had successfully tapped into the community’s aspirational endeavor that hard work should be duly rewarded.

Having played a role in the Conservatives victory, it’s not unreasonable now for the BME communities to ask the Government what are its plans to tackle persistent race inequality? In areas such as Black youth unemployment which has risen 50% in the last 3 years, and at the other end of the spectrum, the ‘glass ceiling’ BME middle managers face both in the public and private sector?

This election has moved reshaped the political landscape in regard the BME vote. That massive shift from Labour to the Conservatives will mean that both parties will for the foreseeable future have to diligently factor in the BME vote in their calculations of winning elections.

Simon Woolley