The 2016 US Election: Who’s in the Running?

Having the great fortune to be in the US capital for the last 3 months, front row seats to the 2014 midterm elections has revealed much by way of indirect and discreet campaign strategy and organising. Everything, from the release of autobiographies by notable politicians, to the preferred holiday location of political candidates has been meticulously scrutinised by eager journalists and critics.

On the Left, the 2016 presidential candidate for the Democratic Party appears to offer up the most certainty. As early as 2012, political elites and grass roots organisers alike have vocally hedged their bets on a Clinton ticket. Famously, Nancy Pelosi, Minority Leader of the US House of Representatives, suggested that former Secretary of State Ms. Clinton should run in a 2012 interview with MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell, musing: “wouldn’t that be exciting?” The Grassroots #READY campaign has similarly galvanised public support in recent months. The Ready for Hillary website currently stocks T-shirts, party cups and posters to raise funds for grassroots campaign-- if Clinton decides to run.

In fairness, public encouragement only goes so far without an official announcement. For the last few months, and notably since the release of her newest autobiograpy “Hard Choices,” Clinton has playfully dismissed inquisitions into her plans for 2016, telling British women’s magazine Stylist “Look, clearly I’m thinking about it, and I will continue to ponder it, but I’m not going to make any decisions yet. I really want to be a grandmother first.”

Though carefully chosen words in this instance, Clinton’s timely comments on President Obama ‘s international record have left political observers incredulous about her subtlety. In a recent high-profile criticism of President Obama’s foreign policy in Syria, Clinton condemned Obama’s decision not to arm Syrian rebels sooner, dubbing the West Wing‘s political strategy: “Don’t do stupid stuff.” For many political experts, Clinton’s newly vocal and “hawkish” approach to international affairs signalled her attempts to ideologically distance herself from her former boss, an important sign of her hopes to run in 2016.

Importantly, though it would appear most Democratic supporters are anticipating another historical election, not all are necessarily keen to see a Clinton back in the White House. Woman candidates, including Senator Elizabeth Warren and Wendy Davis are being positioned as challengers to the Clinton candidacy in the Democratic Primaries. Hopes pegged on Elizabeth Warren to run in 2016 have witnessed her stay just about true to her political persona in recent months. Unlike Clinton, Warren is described to fall further left within the Democratic Party, firmly on the side of bank regulation, fair economic distribution and affordable higher education.

For such reasons, it can be reasonably suggested that if Warren were to run, her activism on student loans and better corporate regulation could largely sweep up the votes of young professionals, current students, recent graduates and further left leaning liberals. This provides a particularly stark comparison to Clinton’s prospective capacity to win the youth, minority or young professional vote due to an increasing sentiment among Americans that the Clintons are economically out of touch with the middle classes.

(Perhaps) to Clinton’s fortune, Senator Warren has consistently denied her plans to run for the Democratic nomination, telling supporters at the Netroots Nation conference this summer to “please sit down” when they chanted “Run Liz run!” Pragmatically too, it may not make much sense for serious presidential hopefuls to run this election cycle; a recent Pew survey conducted earlier this year found that 87% of liberal Democrats wanted Hillary Clinton to run for president.

On the other side, the Republican Party, also known as the GOP (Gallant Old Party), offers an exciting unknown in regards to its front running presidential candidates. Unlike the potential candidate monopoly on the Democratic presidential race, the Washington Post recently name-dropped five GOP presidential hopefuls: Rick Perry, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson and Mike Pence . Over the last year, and specifically during the 2014 campaign trail, notable (alleged) presidential hopefuls have performed poorly in midterm regional primaries, or have been left weak by undefeated political scandals.

For example, leading member of the GOP and governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, has been dogged by political turbulence since 2013 when it emerged that he had allegedly ordered the obstruction of traffic to punish a dissident mayoral candidate. Additionally, once-rising star of the GOP, and former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor surprisingly lost out to Tea Party candidate David Brat in the 7th Congressional district of Virginia.

The notable rise of far-Right Tea Party candidates has raised alarm bells for moderate Republicans; there is much anxiety that a far-Right presidential nominee will polarise- and consequently impede- Republican success in 2016. The second son of the Bush political dynasty, Jeb Bush, has recently risen to the GOP main-stage as a presidential hopeful. Married to a Mexican-American woman, some hopeful GOP organizers (and Democratic observers) predict this Republican splash of diversity may re-ignite Republican popularity with Hispanic voters, the fastest growing minority in the US.

Meandering hypotheses on who will run in 2016 confirms that as of this year, little appears certain. Figures including Sarah Palin, Condoleezza Rice, Joe Biden and Wendy Davis continue to stoke election fires, making for something exciting—but currently unclear.

Priscilla Mensah